Missing Americans: Early death in the United States-1933-2021.

We assessed how many US deaths would have been averted each year, 1933-2021, if US age-specific mortality rates had equaled the average of 21 other wealthy nations. We refer to these excess US deaths as "missing Americans." The United States had lower mortality rates than peer countries in the 1930s-1950s and similar mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning in the 1980s, however, the United States began experiencing a steady increase in the number of missing Americans, reaching 622,534 in 2019 alone. Excess US deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 1,009,467 in 2020 and 1,090,103 in 2021. Excess US mortality was particularly pronounced for persons under 65 years. In 2020 and 2021, half of all US deaths under 65 years and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality from 2019 to 2021 would have been avoided if the United States had the mortality rates of its peers. In 2021, there were 26.4 million years of life lost due to excess US mortality relative to peer nations, and 49% of all missing Americans died before age 65. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of excess US deaths, although the majority of missing Americans were White.

Inequities in COVID-19 vaccine and booster coverage across Massachusetts ZIP codes after the emergence of Omicron: A population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Inequities in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine and booster coverage may contribute to future disparities in morbidity and mortality within and between Massachusetts (MA) communities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of primary series vaccination and booster coverage 18 months into the general population vaccine rollout. We obtained public-use data on residents vaccinated and boosted by ZIP code (and by age group: 5 to 19, 20 to 39, 40 to 64, 65+) from MA Department of Public Health, as of October 10, 2022. We constructed population denominators for postal ZIP codes by aggregating census tract population estimates from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We excluded nonresidential ZIP codes and the smallest ZIP codes containing 1% of the state's population. We mapped variation in ZIP code-level primary series vaccine and booster coverage and used regression models to evaluate the association of these measures with ZIP code-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Because age is strongly associated with COVID-19 severity and vaccine access/uptake, we assessed whether observed socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities persisted after adjusting for age composition and plotted age-specific vaccine and booster coverage by deciles of ZIP code characteristics. We analyzed data on 418 ZIP codes. We observed wide geographic variation in primary series vaccination and booster rates, with marked inequities by ZIP code-level education, median household income, essential worker share, and racial/ethnic composition. In age-stratified analyses, primary series vaccine coverage was very high among the elderly. However, we found large inequities in vaccination rates among younger adults and children, and very large inequities in booster rates for all age groups. In multivariable regression models, each 10 percentage point increase in "percent college educated" was associated with a 5.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.3, p < 0.001) percentage point increase in primary series vaccine coverage and a 5.4 (95% CI 4.5 to 6.4, p < 0.001) percentage point increase in booster coverage. Although ZIP codes with higher "percent Black/Latino/Indigenous" and higher "percent essential workers" had lower vaccine coverage (-0.8, 95% CI -1.3 to -0.3, p < 0.01; -5.5, 95% CI -7.3 to -3.8, p < 0.001), these associations became strongly positive after adjusting for age and education (1.9, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.8, p < 0.001; 4.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 7.1, p < 0.001), consistent with high demand for vaccines among Black/Latino/Indigenous and essential worker populations within age and education groups. Strong positive associations between "median household income" and vaccination were attenuated after adjusting for age. Limitations of the study include imprecision of the estimated population denominators, lack of individual-level sociodemographic data, and potential for residential ZIP code misreporting in vaccination data. CONCLUSIONS: Eighteen months into MA's general population vaccine rollout, there remained large inequities in COVID-19 primary series vaccine and booster coverage across MA ZIP codes, particularly among younger age groups. Disparities in vaccination coverage by racial/ethnic composition were statistically explained by differences in age and education levels, which may mediate the effects of structural racism on vaccine uptake. Efforts to increase booster coverage are needed to limit future socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Economic precarity, loneliness, and suicidal ideation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The US population faced stressors associated with suicide brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the relationship between stressors and suicidal ideation in the context of the pandemic may inform policies and programs to prevent suicidality and suicide. We compared suicidal ideation between two cross-sectional, nationally representative surveys of adults in the United States: the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and the 2020 COVID-19 and Life Stressors Impact on Mental Health and Well-being (CLIMB) study (conducted March 31 to April 13). We estimated the association between stressors and suicidal ideation in bivariable and multivariable Poisson regression models with robust variance to generate unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios (PR and aPR). Suicidal ideation increased from 3.4% in the 2017-2018 NHANES to 16.3% in the 2020 CLIMB survey, and from 5.8% to 26.4% among participants in low-income households. In the multivariable model, difficulty paying rent (aPR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1) and feeling alone (aPR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.5-2.4) were associated with suicidal ideation but job loss was not (aPR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.6 to 1.2). Suicidal ideation increased by 12.9 percentage points and was almost 4.8 times higher during the COVID-19 pandemic. Suicidal ideation was more prevalent among people facing difficulty paying rent (31.5%), job loss (24.1%), and loneliness (25.1%), with each stressor associated with suicidal ideation in bivariable models. Difficulty paying rent and loneliness were most associated with suicidal ideation. Policies and programs to support people experiencing economic precarity and loneliness may contribute to suicide prevention.

Higher COVID-19 Vaccination And Narrower Disparities In US Cities With Paid Sick Leave Compared To Those Without.

Paid sick leave provides workers with paid time off to receive COVID-19 vaccines and to recover from potential vaccine adverse effects. We hypothesized that US cities with paid sick leave would have higher COVID-19 vaccination coverage and narrower coverage disparities than those without such policies. Using county-level vaccination data and paid sick leave data from thirty-seven large US cities in 2021, we estimated the association between city-level paid sick leave policies and vaccination coverage in the working-age population and repeated the analysis using coverage in the population ages sixty-five and older as a negative control. We also examined associations by neighborhood social vulnerability. Cities with a paid sick leave policy had 17 percent higher vaccination coverage than cities without such a policy. We found stronger associations between paid sick leave and vaccination in the most socially vulnerable neighborhoods compared with the least socially vulnerable ones, and no association in the population ages sixty-five and older. Paid sick leave policies are associated with higher COVID-19 vaccination coverage and narrower coverage disparities. Increasing access to these policies may help increase vaccination and reduce inequities in coverage.

A database of US state policies to mitigate COVID-19 and its economic consequences.

BACKGROUND: Since COVID-19 first appeared in the United States (US) in January 2020, US states have pursued a wide range of policies to mitigate the spread of the virus and its economic ramifications. Without unified federal guidance, states have been the front lines of the policy response. MAIN TEXT: We created the COVID-19 US State Policy (CUSP) database ( https://statepolicies.com/ ) to document the dates and components of economic relief and public health measures issued at the state level in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Documented interventions included school and business closures, face mask mandates, directives on vaccine eligibility, eviction moratoria, and expanded unemployment insurance benefits. By providing continually updated information, CUSP was designed to inform rapid-response, policy-relevant research in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been widely used to investigate the impact of state policies on population health and health equity. This paper introduces the CUSP database and highlights how it is already informing the COVID-19 pandemic response in the US. CONCLUSION: CUSP is the most comprehensive publicly available policy database of health, social, and economic policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. CUSP documents widespread variation in state policy decisions and implementation dates across the US and serves as a freely available and valuable resource to policymakers and researchers.

Disparities Made Invisible: Gaps in COVID-19 Data for American Indian and Alaska Native Populations.

Introduction: Complete COVID-19 data for American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations are critical to equitable pandemic response. Methods: We used the COVID-19 U.S. State Policy database to document gaps in COVID-19 data reporting for AI/AN people. Results: Sixty-four percent of states do not report AI/AN data for at least one COVID-19 health metric: cases, hospitalizations, deaths, or vaccinations. Discussion: The lack of AI/AN-specific data masks the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 and presents challenges to COVID-19 prevention, policy implementation, and health equity. Conclusions: Public-facing data disaggregated by race may facilitate rapid response COVID-19 research and policymaking to support AI/AN communities.

Association of the Implementation of Child Tax Credit Advance Payments With Food Insufficiency in US Households.

Importance: A key component of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 included an expansion of the Child Tax Credit with advance payments beginning in July 2021, a "child allowance" that was projected to dramatically reduce child poverty. Food insufficiency has increased markedly during the economic crisis spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic, with disparities among marginalized populations, and may be associated with substantial health care and social costs. Objective: To assess whether the introduction of advance payments for the Child Tax Credit in mid-July 2021 was associated with changes in food insufficiency in US households with children. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from several phases of the Household Pulse Survey, conducted by the US Census Bureau from January 6 to August 2, 2021. The survey had 585 170 responses, representing a weighted population size of 77 165 153 households. Exposure: The first advance Child Tax Credit payment, received on July 15, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Household food insufficiency. Results: The weighted sample of 585 170 respondents was mostly female (51.5%) and non-Hispanic White (62.5%), with a plurality aged 25 to 44 years (48.1%), having a 4-year degree or more (34.7%) and a 2019 household income of $75 000 to $149 999 (23.1%). In the weeks after the first advance payment of the Child Tax Credit was made (July 21 to August 2, 2021), 62.4% of households with children reported receiving it compared with 1.1% of households without children present (P < .001). There was a 3.7-percentage point reduction (95% CI, -0.055 to -0.019 percentage points; P < .001) in household food insufficiency for households with children present in the survey wave after the first advance payment of the Child Tax Credit, corresponding to a 25.9% reduction, using an event study specification. Difference-in-differences (-16.4%) and modified Poisson (-20.8%) models also yielded large estimates for reductions in household food insufficiency associated with the first advance payment of the expanded Child Tax Credit. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that the Child Tax Credit advance payment increased household income and may have acted as a buffer against food insufficiency. However, its expansion and advance payment are only a temporary measure for 2021. Congress must consider whether to extend these changes or make them permanent and improve implementation to reduce barriers to receipt for low-income families.

Variation in State-Level Eviction Moratorium Protections and Mental Health Among US Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Although evictions have been associated with adverse mental health outcomes, it remains unclear which stages of the eviction process are associated with mental distress among renters. Variation in COVID-19 pandemic eviction protections across US states enables identification of intervention targets within the eviction process to improve renters' mental health. Objective: To measure the association between the strength of eviction protections (ie, stages blocked by eviction moratoriums) and mental distress among renters during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used individual-level, nationally representative data from the Understanding Coronavirus in America Survey to measure associations between state eviction moratorium protections and mental distress. The sample of 2317 respondents included renters with annual household incomes less than $75 000 who reported a state of residence and completed surveys between March 10 and September 3, 2020, prior to the federal eviction moratorium order by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Exposures: Time-varying strength of state moratorium protections as a categorical variable: none, weak (blocking court hearings, judgments, or enforcement without blocking notice or filing), or strong (blocking all stages of the eviction process beginning with notice and filing). Main Outcomes and Measures: Moderate to severe mental distress was measured using the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire. Linear regression models were adjusted for time-varying state COVID-19 incidence and mortality, public health restrictions, and unemployment rates. Models included individual and time fixed effects as well as clustered standard errors. Results: The sample consisted of 2317 individuals (20 853 total observations) composed largely (1788 [78%] weighted) of middle-aged adults (25-64 years of age) and women (1538 [60%]); 640 respondents (23%) self-reported as Hispanic or Latinx, 314 respondents (20%) as non-Hispanic Black, and 1071 respondents (48%) as non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity. Relative to no state-level eviction moratorium protections, strong protections were associated with a 12.6% relative reduction (risk ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99) in the probability of mental distress, whereas weak protections were not associated with a statistically significant reduction (risk ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86-1.06). Conclusions and Relevance: This analysis of the Understanding Coronavirus in America Survey data found that strong eviction moratoriums were associated with protection against mental distress, suggesting that distress begins early in the eviction process with notice and filing. This finding is consistent with the idea that to reduce mental distress among renters, policy makers should focus on primary prevention of evictions.

COVID-19 Vaccination and Mental Health: A Difference-In-Difference Analysis of the Understanding America Study.

INTRODUCTION: Mental health problems increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The knowledge that one is less at risk after being vaccinated may alleviate distress, but this hypothesis remains unexplored. This study tests whether psychological distress declined in those vaccinated against COVID-19 in the U.S. and whether changes in anticipatory fears mediated any association. METHODS: A nationally representative cohort of U.S. adults (N=8,090) in the Understanding America Study were interviewed regularly from March 2020 to June 2021 (28 waves). Difference-in-differences regression tested whether vaccination reduced distress (Patient Health Questionnaire 4 scores), with mediation analysis used to identify potential mechanisms, including perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death. RESULTS: Vaccination was associated with a 0.04-SD decline in distress (95% CI= -0.07, -0.02). Vaccination was associated with a 7.77-percentage point reduction in perceived risk of infection (95% CI= -8.62, -6.92), a 6.91-point reduction in perceived risk of hospitalization (95% CI= -7.72, -6.10), and a 4.68-point reduction in perceived risk of death (95% CI= -5.32, -4.04). Including risk perceptions decreased the vaccination-distress association by 25%. Event study models suggest that vaccinated and never vaccinated respondents followed similar Patient Health Questionnaire 4 trends before vaccination, diverging significantly after vaccination. Analyses were robust to individual and wave fixed effects and time-varying controls. The effect of vaccination on distress varied by race/ethnicity, with the largest declines observed among American Indian and Alaska Native individuals (ß= -0.20, p<0.05, 95% CI= -0.36, -0.03). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with declines in distress and perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death. Vaccination campaigns could promote these additional benefits of receiving the COVID-19 vaccine.

Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of US households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals' ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in US states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 US states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13 to September 3, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative binomial regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and expiration was associated with a doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 3.9) and a 5-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio = 5.4; CI: 3.1, 9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433,700 excess cases (CI: 365,200, 502,200) and 10,700 excess deaths (CI: 8,900, 12,500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Association Between Receipt of Unemployment Insurance and Food Insecurity Among People Who Lost Employment During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

Importance: More than 50 million US residents have lost work during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and food insecurity has increased. Objective: To evaluate the association between receipt of unemployment insurance, including a $600/wk federal supplement between April and July, and food insecurity among people who lost their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used difference-in-differences analysis of longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of US adults residing in low- and middle-income households (ie, <$75 000 annual income) who lost work during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were from 15 waves of the Understanding Coronavirus in America study (conducted April 1 to November 11, 2020). Exposure: Receipt of unemployment insurance benefits. Main Outcomes and Measures: Food insecurity and eating less due to financial constraints, assessed every 2 weeks by self-report. Results: Of 2319 adults living in households earning less than $75 000 annually and employed in February 2020, 1119 (48.3%) experienced unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic and made up our main sample (588 [53.6%] White individuals; mean [SD] age 45 [15] years; 732 [65.4%] women). Of those who lost employment, 415 (37.1%) reported food insecurity and 437 (39.1%) reported eating less due to financial constraints in 1 or more waves of the study. Among people who lost work, receipt of unemployment insurance was associated with a 4.3 (95% CI, 1.8-6.9) percentage point decrease in food insecurity (a 35.0% relative reduction) and a 5.7 (95% CI, 3.0-8.4) percentage point decrease in eating less due to financial constraints (a 47.8% relative reduction). Decreases in food insecurity were larger with the $600/wk supplement and for individuals who were receiving larger amounts of unemployment insurance. Conclusions and Relevance: In this US national cohort study, receiving unemployment insurance was associated with large reductions in food insecurity among people who lost employment during the COVID-19 pandemic. The $600/wk federal supplement and larger amounts of unemployment insurance were associated with larger reductions in food insecurity.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders varied by state.

State "shelter-in-place" (SIP) orders limited the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. However, impacts may have varied by state, creating opportunities to learn from states where SIPs have been effective. Using a novel dataset of state-level SIP order enactment and county-level mobility data form Google, we use a stratified regression discontinuity study design to examine the effect of SIPs in all states that implemented them. We find that SIP orders reduced mobility nationally by 12 percentage points (95% CI: -13.1 to -10.9), however the effects varied substantially across states, from -35 percentage points to +11 percentage points. Larger reductions were observed in states with higher incomes, higher population density, lower Black resident share, and lower 2016 vote shares for Donald J. Trump. This suggests that optimal public policies during a pandemic will vary by state and there is unlikely to be a "one-size fits all" approach that works best.

Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Physical distancing has been the primary strategy to control COVID-19 in the United States. We used mobility data from a large, anonymized sample of smartphone users to assess the relationship between neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the pandemic. We found a strong gradient between neighbourhood income and physical distancing. Individuals in high-income neighbourhoods increased their days at home substantially more than individuals in low-income neighbourhoods did. Residents of low-income neighbourhoods were more likely to work outside the home, compared to residents in higher-income neighbourhoods, but were not more likely to visit locations such as supermarkets, parks and hospitals. Finally, we found that state orders were only associated with small increases in staying home in low-income neighbourhoods. Our findings indicate that people in lower-income neighbourhoods have faced barriers to physical distancing, particularly needing to work outside the home, and that state physical distancing policies have not mitigated these disparities.